A few days ago, I published the results of QBs drafted in the first round over the decade from 2012 through 2021. The data showed that no QB drafted between the first overall pick and pick #5 in that period had achieved the kind of success that fans hope for when their team picks a QB that early in the draft. The most successful QBs picked 2nd or 3rd overall were Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz and Robert Griffin III. In fact, no team has really hit on a starting QB in this range between the Falcons selecting Matt Ryan 3rd overall in 2008 and the Texans striking gold with C.J. Stroud in 2023.
Many Hogs Haven readers appear to have been as surprised as I was by that result. The comments section revealed a variety of reactions, and coping mechanisms, which should come as little surprise in a fanbase that has just endured 24 years of hopelessness in the hands of an inept, meddling owner. A few thoughtful readers pointed out a very real cause for hope, despite the dismal recent results.
While teams picking 2nd and 3rd all struck out, teams drafting from pick number 5 through 12 hit on a rather remarkable 78% of their picks. That almost certainly means that quality starting QBs that other teams had high on their boards would have been available when the teams picking 2nd and 3rd were on the podium. Clearly the issue was not with the availability of quality starters at pick #2, but rather with the decision making of the teams doing the picking.
A few commenters pointed out that the way the data were presented in the previous article didn’t allow readers to really get a sense of the choices the teams picking 2nd and 3rd had to make. Some QB needy teams might not have had better options with their picks, while others might have passed over better options that other teams would have picked.
To get a sense of how much better the draft outcomes near the top of the first round could have been reasonably expected to turn out, I had a look at what successful QBs that other teams picked just a little later were available when QBs were drafted 2nd and 3rd overall. I then did a What If experiment to see how much higher the hit rates would have been if the teams picking 2nd and 3rd had chosen QBs that other teams picked from 5th through 12th. The idea was to limit the alternative choices to QBs that other teams had rated highly on their boards, rather than allowing unrealistic hindsight picks which never would have happened, like the Redskins picking Russell Wilson instead of RG3.
