How a minor mental hurdle is revealing a frightening lack of adjustability for one of baseball’s athletic freaks.
I hate that I’m having to type this, but the Yankees have a Spencer Jones problem. The 2022 first round pick out of Vanderbilt has long drawn my fascination as an 80-grade size-adjusted athlete, capable of covering outfield grass like a jaguar running at full speed towards its prey. No one should run this fast at 6-foot-6 — he’s even quicker than 2017/2018 Aaron Judge — and he combines it with good reads off the bat. There is a certain level of grace to his defensive acumen, one that any observer can appreciate from the kid at his first pro ballgame to the seasoned scout who’s seen four generations of players throughout his career.
Bryce Eldridge, a prospect in the Giants’ system, is the only other player who is Jones’ size and combines great bat speed and prodigious brute strength. When Jones gets into one, there are a handful — if that — of prospects who can park it as far as he can into the outfield bleachers. Jones doesn’t discriminate with his power: he’s happy to pull the ball, but he’s shown a proclivity for hitting balls over batters’ eyes all across the Eastern League. In all, the best of Spencer Jones is one of the absolute best prospects in the sport.
Here’s the problem: we don’t get the best of Spencer Jones enough. Not nearly enough.
In my now two years of scouting Jones, I’ve identified the maddening dichotomy between his good and bad. Whether he looks like the best player in the world or a Quad-A-type depends on how he sees the ball. There are moments where he spits on major league-quality pitches just off the black, and then there are times when you’re left to wonder what he’s seeing up there. He consistently picks up heat which is good, but he goes through extended lulls where he’s completely helpless when trying to identify offspeed offerings below the knees. You can tell when he can’t pick it up, as he’ll often chase below the zone and then end up late on fastballs up. It doesn’t matter how good you are at identifying pitches: if you’re sitting changeup and then a pitcher throws a 95 MPH fastball, you’re almost always going to lose that battle unless you’re Luis Arráez-ing and not looking to impact the ball whatsoever.
It’s exasperating to watch this dilemma play out, as his swing is smooth. Contrary to public perception, he can lift the ball, but he mishits way too many hittable pitches because he isn’t seeing the ball well. I’d love to pin this on an adjustment period, but Jones has essentially played a full season of Double-A ball across 365 days. It’s a nonstop cycle of:
Seeing the ball well, looking like lefty Giancarlo Stanton who can play in center field
Starting to chase too much on offspeed pitches below the zone
Begin sitting on offspeed so he isn’t fooled, only to end up late on fastballs
Either swing-and-miss or hit the upper third of the ball, thus driving it into the ground for a routine out
Rinse and repeat
What I find especially troubling as a scout is how little he’s adjusted to upper-level pitching throughout the season. You often hear the phrase, “Baseball is a game of adjustments,” and that’s 100 percent true. Jones, unfortunately, isn’t adjusting like he needs to, and it leaves a lot of meat on the proverbial bone. There is still top-prospect-in-baseball upside if he can pick up offspeed better and stop this never-ending cycle of frustration, but every day that goes by is just another day he shows an inability to make essential adjustments.
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