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Pitching prospect Noah Dean of the Red Sox faced some difficulties in 2023.
Dean was at Low-A Salem for the whole of 2023. The 22-year-old left-hander pitched 63 innings over 21 appearances (17 starts) with Boston’s Carolina League affiliate, posting a 6.29 ERA and 5.51 FIP with 86 strikeouts to 72 walks.
The Red Sox selected Dean in the fifth round of the 2022 amateur draft out of Old Dominion, and although Baseball America thought he was “one of the more exciting pure relievers” in his class, Dean made his professional debut as a starter last April. After signing for $322,500, Dean did not pitch with an affiliate.
Perhaps that was to be expected, but Dean found it difficult to settle into that new role right away. In four starts in April, the product of New Jersey posted an 8.31 ERA, but he also held opponents to a.194 batting average against. Then, to start and close a more promising May, he pitched two perfect five-inning starts.
June produced significantly less encouraging outcomes (15 earned runs in nine innings). It seems like Dean started to get things together after the All-Star break, but the same can be said about July (eight earned runs in 14 2/3 innings).
For example, Dean pitched to a 4.50 ERA in 12 frames, striking out 20 of the 50 batters he faced in his final three outings of July. On August 6, he started one more game but only lasted two-thirds of an inning before spending the rest of the season in the bullpen.
Dean finished seventh in strikeouts per nine innings (12.29), 19th in strikeout rate (28.5 percent), 29th in batting average against (.232), and seventh in batting average on balls in play (.358) among the 74 pitchers who pitched in the Carolina League last season. These results could indicate that Dean was occasionally unlucky due to subpar defense behind him or something similar.
On the other hand, despite his remarkable strikeout totals, Dean’s ball four surrender rate was among the lowest in the Carolina League. Dean was ranked 72nd in FIP, 71st in ERA and xFIP (5.41), and 74th in walks per nine innings (10.29), walk rate (23.8%), and WHIP (1.97) by FanGraphs using the same factors as above.
Therefore, as he develops further, it will be crucial for Dean to improve both his command and control of the strike zone. According to his SoxProspects.com scouting report, the 6-foot-2, 185-pound pitcher already has an intriguing three-pitch combination that includes a 92-94 mph fastball that reaches 96 mph, a 77-81 mph curveball, and an 83-85 mph changeup.
SoxProspects.com does not presently list Dean, who turns 23 in March, as one of the best pitching prospects in Boston’s farm system. According to the website, he will likely join the Drive’s bullpen rather than their starting rotation when he moves up to High-A Greenville at the beginning of the 2024 campaign.
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